I haven’t been able to fully articulate and provide factual data to validate what I know, which is electric cars are better for the environment.  Maybe not as much as everyone raves about…but better nonetheless.  

A point of interest is 32% of energy consumption occurs in the industrial sector…becoming more efficient in our industrial production (as many tasks are high power operations) would reduce (with the greatest impact as the industrial sector is the leader in consuming energy) the US coal consumption (and GHG emissions).

It gets a little tricky when you see graphs showing electricity generation emitting more GHG than the transportation sector…how can an electric car be beneficial to the environment (emitting less GHG)?

Another thought is 93% of coal consumption is related to producing electricity, and 70%+ of electricity consumption occurs in buildings, it is easy to determine areas that we could vastly improve our coal consumption (and maybe not that much electricity that would be used to charge cars originated from coal production).

Being a Pacific Northwestener, our energy is generated through hydroelectric (little to no emissions, but harmful to our environment in other ways (think salmon and estuary ecosystems)), so being that our power is clean (compared to other regions generating the majority of their power through coal), it seems logical that an electric vehicle is much better than gasoline or diesel in terms of emissions…however, is an electric vehicle more efficient (less emissions in the atmosphere) in the East North Central Region where over 50% of their power is generated through coal?  This requires more research.

The Pacific Northwest only consumes 1% of the United States electric coal consumption (or coal used to generate electricity)…as most of the Pacific Northwest’s power is generated through hydroelectricity.  The largest areas of coal consumption (to generate electricity) occurs in the East North Central (23%) and South Atlantic (18%).  Coal consumption related to electricity generation is roughly 93% of total US coal consumption…so this graph shows where almost all the coal is consumed.

Of these regions, 5 of them have over 50% of their power generated from coal (E North Central, W North Central, South Atlantic, E South Central and Mountain).  Because of the high correlation, folks assume that more electricity is required to stimulate economic growth (as power/coal consumption is HIGHLY correlated to gross domestic product).  The mindset needs to change towards a model of economic growth through efficiencies (using less energy), or renewable power.  A sustainable long term perspective is to adopt a model of growth in GDP without increasing power production.

Precipitation and temperature change, due to global warming, has put our water supply in jeopardy.  Along with climate change, increased future population and demand will strain the Pacific NW freshwater supply. Portland’s water comes from the Bull Run watershed.  Bull Run is experiencing less late-spring and summer flows; on average, the flow from April to September has decreased 20,000 CFS-days (12.9 billion gallons).  With an increased population demand, the watershed will require approximately 2.8 billion gallons more storage per year.  ”The increase in demand associated with anticipated regional growth during the summer reservoir drawndown, with considering climate change, averages 4.1 billion gallons by the year 2020 and 5.5 billion gallons by 2040.”  The most extensive shift will occur by 2040 and will result in a 12 billion gallon increase demand staining the water supply even further.  The average minimum storage will decrease by 4.1 gallons by 2020 and 5.5 by 2050.

1 http://www.mindfully.org/Air/Greenhouse-Gas.htm

2 http://www.sierraclub.org/globalwarming/health/

3 http://www.enn.com/ecosystems/article/30781

4 http://www.scienceprogress.org/2008/07/climate-change-is-a-humanitarian-problem-with-health-consequences-for-all/

It has been estimated that reducing GHG would greatly benefit human health world wide.  It would eliminate 18,700 deaths, 3 million lost work days, and 16 restricted-activity days each year. (1) 

A study showed that “reducing emissions from nine older coal plats in the Midwest would reduce 300 deaths, 2000 respiratory and cardiac hospital admissions, 10,000 asthma attacks and 400,000 person-days of respiratory symptoms each year”.  (1)

Air pollution deaths have been ranked as one the top 10 causes of disability by the World Health Organization.  The world Resources Institute estimate that 700,000 deaths per year are caused by air pollution and about 8 million avoidable deaths will occur worldwide by 2020. (1)

When alternative transportation was incorrporated during the Olympic Games in Atlanta, vehicle exhaust and air pollutions were reduced by 30% and the number of asthma attacks fell by 40%. (1)

 ”A study by the Ontario Medical Association reported that for every death from air pollution there are an additional 5.1 hospital admissions, 6.8 emergency room visits, and 24,128 minor illness days.  For the year 2000, about 1,900 premature deaths associated with air pollution occurred in Ontario, as well as 47 million minor illness days.” (1)

Due to global warming, it is estimated that 65% of the world’s population will be at risk of becoming infected by malaria. (2)

Frequent heat waves are estimated to increase mortality by 145% by 2020 in such cities as New York. (2)

It is estimated that global warming is the cause of millions of illnesses and160,000 deaths each year. (3)  

Dehydration, caused by increased air temperatures, will increase kidney stone cases by an estimated 2.25 million each year. (4)

Summary

Due to over fishing in the Pacific Ocean, the majority (60%) of the fish purchased by the major Californian distributor comes from farmed sources.  Farmed fish are raised in pins and are fed pellets until they are ready to be sold on the market; this usually takes 18 months.  In addition to over fishing of wild species, other reasons why farmed fish are increasing annually are increased fuel cost, lower quotas, increased feed cost, fewer suppliers, decreased commercial fishing seasons, and an increased emphasis on sustainable species.  In addition, they also believe that such climate changes as El Nina and La Nina play a crucial role in the lack of wild fish.  Recent states like Alaska have enforced strict regulations and quotas on wild species fishing due to overfishing, which has reduced the supply.  The CEO predicted that in the near future all fish purchased would be from farmed fish sources.  Even though quality can be more controllable and sustainable, farmed fish run the risk of spreading disease.  Once there is an outbreak of disease, the whole harvest can potentially be contaminated.  In addition, if farmed fish are accidentally released into the wild, they are unable to survive due to the fact they are solely fed pellets.   

They also get a small but increasing percentage of their fish from the Far East.  Even though this is a cheaper method of acquiring their product, they have no control of the quality or the condition of the environment that the fish were raised and harvested in.  This causes increased issues of contaminated fish due to a lack of regulations in that part of the world.

The bottom line is that events such as global warming are greatly reducing and hindering the fish population in the world’s oceans.  Suppliers, distributors, and consumers are feeling the effects of overfishing, warming ocean waters, and the overall decreased wild fish population.

A: I have been with the company since 2000…I am the manager of the renewable power program…trying to get customers to voluntarily sign up for renewable power, which currently consists of about 60,000 business and 78,000 consumer customers.  We are #1 in singed up customer base and #2 in renewable power kilowatt usage in the nation.

Our renewable program consists of primarily wind power and some biomass energy.  We are also looking at offering solar power in the near future.

Q: What climate change issues are you seeing today?

A: Pretty much all investor owned and thermal generating power utilities are looking at cap and trade programs.  The global climate change has created a need to pursue more efficient uses of energy and decrease carbon emissions.

People have perceptions that there is a strong correlation in economic development and energy consumption.

 - We need to take a look at economic development while using less energy, more renewable energy and using the energy more efficiently.

Q: What are the impacts of global climate change to the energy/utility industry?

A: The utilities are looking at revamping their business model and preparing for changes in technology and energy consumption.  There are some limitations in the utility industry as utilities are highly regulated and consumers have come to expect cheap energy without considering environmental implications.  Utilities are not incented to think outside the box and take risks, so the road is going to be tough.  But there needs to be a separation between the thinking that economic development is directly related to energy consumption.

Rates will probably go up, and utilities are looking at alternatives to bring energy cheaply to the consumer.  We are looking at all areas of energy consumption, and factors affecting global climate change.  

Utilities are not rewarded to take risks.

Climate change is requiring evolving business models that utilities are going to have a hard time adopting too because regulation (not a proponent of de-regulation however) punishes risk taking and rewards utilities for doing the same thing (offering low cost energy  in a reliable manner), which makes the industry slow to adopt.

Global warming and climate change are some of the bad effects due to the lack of movement from the utilities and consumers driving cheap energy.  There needs to be focus on more efficient energy use.  Renewable energy is not the answer in and of itself.  When there is a hot August day and everyone is using their AC’s, there is not any wind…so folks are not using renewable energy.  There needs to be greater emphasis on using less energy and using it more efficiently.

Consumers are looking and asking for change…increased awareness there is a problem but that is leveraged against what consumers (nationwide) are driving.  The Northwest is pretty progressive in awareness and consumption, but efficient energy needs to be the focus.

There is a lack of ownership on climate change of consumers…poor comprehension on the magnitude of the problem…people point to utilities and government to solve the problem.  There needs to be greater accountability to owning problem.

 Q: What trends and consumer impacts are you seeing in response these issues?

 People in PNW are high to act and respond and be educated on global warming issues.  People have real concerns about doing the right thing.  However, from a national perspective a weakening economy and people’s concern about pricing makes it difficult for trends to quickly and progressively use more expensive renewable energy.

Q: What are the most relevant trends when thinking about the next 20 yrs?

A: Climate change is going to play out in a non-linear fashion.  That makes it difficult if not impossible to predict…and unexpected consequences that are going to dramatically affect people’s perception of climate change and global warming.

This will create increasing public awareness and education.  It may take a catastrophic event to get folks attention.

Transportation is a critical issue when thinking about the next 20 years.  If you think about the semiconductor industry and the improvements that have been made in the technology (Moore’s law which says that technology capability will double every two years).  Compare this to the automobile industry…there are still cars operating at the same gas mileage that the original model T’s were at.  There needs to be improvements in the transportation industry and efficient use of fuel while seeking alternative fuels…such as alternative fuels, electrical and solar.

Q: What is the best solution to mitigate and reduce the impact of climate change?

A: Clear (government) leadership willing to step out on the edge and demand economic growth with less use of energy…we know how to do this…we need to do this with every way we use energy.  Strong leader, strong focus.

Q: What is the one activity that would most significant impact on climate change?

A: Transportation in Oregon in now the biggest greenhouse gas emitter.  Everybody is involved in that.  One practice to have biggest impact is to reduce usage of gas emissions by reducing travel and carbon emission.

We are starting to see conversion to electricity as a fuel (all electric fuel).

We need to create fundamental behavior change by consumers in reducing vehicle miles.

There are a lot of opportunities in this sector and it touches everybody, but it takes everyone’s involvement.

 http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=175644

Projected environmental changes such as increased heatwaves, increased rainfall, droughts, global warming, reduced air quality, and increased precipitation will greatly affect human welfare and health in the future.  Climate conditions are a key element to perceived quality of life, and can affect human well being directly (i.e. extreme weather events) as well as indirectly (i.e. spreading of food borne disease). It is predicted that by 2050 the US population that will be 65 years or older will be 86 million or 21% of the total population.  This group, along with small children and the poor, will be highly vulnerable to the climate changes and will feel the affects greatly. 

One aspect of climate change is increased heat waves; consequently, heat related deaths are expected to increase in the coming decades.  Eleven of the last twelve years have ranked the hottest in the record of global surface temperatures since 1850.  In the past 50 years, there has been a steady increase of record extreme temperatures and heatwaves.  The West and Southwest have felt the greatest effects of increased temperatures.  Those 65 or older have the highest heatwave death rates.  One study looked at 44 US cities in the summer and winter to analyze the effects of extreme weather conditions.    They looked at the years 2020 and 2050 under a no-control scenario; in 2020 the increase in heat related deaths was from 1,840 up to a range between 1,981-4,100.  In 2050 the excess summer deaths were between 3,190-4,748.    

The ocean temperatures absorb 80% of the heat, which have increased temperatures to depths of 3000 m.  With increased temperatures, the ocean water levels are increasing annually.  In fact, in just the past century the level has increased 5-8 inches.  It is predicted that by 2100 the temperature will increase by 1.1 to 6.4 degrees C, and the level is estimated to increase anywhere from 7-23 inches.

There is also a recent trend of increased perception in some parts of the US.  In the Pacific NW and California, the increase in summer time rainfall has increased 20% to 80%.  El Nino events are associated with the increase of precipitation.  Another explanation for the increase in precipitation is the rising temperatures which turn snowfall into rainfall.  The snow pack is melting faster and earlier, which in some parts has been up to 4 weeks sooner than normal.  

Due to these current and furture consistent climate changes, illnesses and diseases will likely increase and affect human health.  A recent trend is the increase of the transmissions of blood-feeding insects or tick species, as well as rodent species.  Due to ecosystem changes and warmer temperatures, there has been an increase of Lyme disease, ehrlichioses, and West Nile Virus which is expanding the range of people who are affected.  Waterborne and food-borne diseases are also on the rise.  In 2002 there were 1,300 outbreaks due to food-related diseases.  Climate changes that have provided conditions for growth and survival for bacterial which has lead to an increase in outbreaks. 

Another cause is increased storm events and flooding which contaminates crops from near by livestock.  There is also a direct link between salmonella  and increased temperatures.  Yearly peaks in salmonella cases occurred within 1-6 weeks of the highest temperatures. 

Other diseases that are on the rise due to warmer temperatures include: Leptospirosis (which is the most widespread zoonotic disease in the world), Vibrio (shellfish-related illnesses), cryptosporidium and giardia (waterborne illnesses), and Naegleria fowleri (free-living amboeboflagellate found in lakes at warm temperatures).  There are also epidemics of food and water exposure viruses such as enteroviruses, rotaviruses, hepatitis A, and nororvirus.  These viruses account for 67% of food-borne illnesses.  Between 1948 and 1994, 51% of waterborne illnesses occurred after a 90th percentile precipitation event and 68% after an 80th percentile event.  It has also been noted that there is a direct correlation between major rainfall and waterborne diseases.

In seasons of strong precipitation, often resulting in flooding, there have been studies that show that this helps determine the severity of the influenza season in regards to length and intensity.  Another illness that is greatly affected by the climate is valley fever, which is caused by the inhalation of spores of a fungus that thrives during wet periods after a drought has occurred.

Poor air quality is exaggerated when ground level ozone is formed because of air pollutants and increased temperatures.  This causes millions of Americans to live in areas that are below the air quality standards.  There is a direct correlation between poor air quality and short and long term health effects such as: coughing and breathing problems, lung disease, asthma, chronic bronchitis, heart attack, and arrhythmias.  When high levels of CO2 are present, the mortality increases by 1.1% per degree temperature increase over the baseline rate.

http://www.who.int/features/factfiles/climate_change/facts/en/index3.html

1.)  Over the past 50 years, human activity has released enough green house gases to drastically affect the global climate; for example, CO2 has increased by 30% since pre-industrial times.

2.)  Approximately 600,000 deaths have occured in the 1990′s due to weather related natural disasters-95% took place in developing countries.

3.)  An increase of 70,000 deaths occurred in 2003 due to extreme summertime temperatures.  They are expected to increase in the future.

4.)  Elevated temperatures have increased illnesses such as asthma.  In 2005 there were 255,000 asthma deaths and the number is expected to increase by 20% in the next 10 years.

5.)  More than 50% of the global population live near a coastline.  With increased levels and flooding, there is a strong potential for population displacement as well as large scale death, injury, and disease.

6.)  Increased precipitation has compromised the quality of water.  This effects 4 out of every 10 people, while also increasing water-borne illnesses.

7.)   Due to the lack of clean water worldwide, it is becoming increasingly more difficult and expensive to transport safe water into homes which are jeopardized by dangerous water quality which causes illnesses.

8.)  Climate sensitive diseases have increased and are the largest global killers; these include malnutrition, malaria, and diarrhoea.

9.)  Increased temperatures have devastated the global food supply and are causing malnutrition around the world.  By 2050, the amount of people who are affected by hunger will double.

10.)  By focusing in on actions to reduce green house gases such as CO2, the global community will reduce air pollution and improve human health.

http://www.nrdc.org/buildinggreen/casestudies/ohsu.pdf

Portland is a leader in green buildings and new technology to help reduce the carbon impact that traditional construction creates.  Oregon Health and Science University (OHSU) has expanded their newest division with green construction.  The building is 16 stories, 400,000 square feet, and is LEED Platinum.  The goal of the design group as well as OHSU was to be a sustainable leader in green building while reducing their carbon footprint.  Here are a few of the benefits of a sustainable building:

• A 10% reduction or a savings of $3 million in HAVC costs
• 100% onsite rainwater reuse system
• Efficient toilet flushing and irrigation
• Site built solar thermal system for heating
• Energy efficient–exceeding standards by 61%
• Natural ventilation in stairwells

Projected Savings 

Water: 5.5 million gallons / $40,000/year

Natural Gas: 28,573 BTU/sqr ft/yr

Electricity:21,543BTU/sqr ft/yr / $660,000/yr

Pollutant Reductions

CO2: 12%

NOx: 38%

SOx: 38%